Personalized Infant Risk Prediction for Severe Respiratory Syncytial Virus Lower Respiratory Tract Infection Requiring Intensive Care Unit Admission.

Background: Currently, there are no available tools to identify infants at the highest risk of significant morbidity and mortality from respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) who would benefit most from RSV prevention products. The objective was to develop and internally validate a personalized risk prediction tool for use among all newborns that uses readily available birth/postnatal data to predict RSV LRTI requiring intensive care unit (ICU) admission. Methods: We conducted a population-based birth cohort study of infants born from 1995 to 2007, insured by the Tennessee Medicaid Program, and who did not receive RSV immunoprophylaxis during the first year of life. The primary outcome was severe RSV LRTI requiring ICU admission during the first year of life. We built a multivariable logistic regression model including demographic and clinical variables available at or shortly after birth to predict the primary outcome. Results: In a population-based sample of 429 365 infants, 713 (0.2%) had severe RSV LRTI requiring ICU admission. The median age of admission was 66 days (interquartile range, 37-120). Our tool, including 19 variables, demonstrated good predictive accuracy (area under the curve, 0.78; 95% confidence interval, 0.77-0.80) and identified infants who did not qualify for palivizumab, based on American Academy of Pediatrics guidelines, but had higher predicted risk levels than infants who qualified (27% of noneligible infants with >0.16% predicted probabilities [lower quartile for eligible infants]). Conclusions: We developed a personalized tool that identified infants at increased risk for severe RSV LRTI requiring ICU admission, expected to benefit most from immunoprophylaxis.

Barriers and Facilitators to the Implementation of the Early-Onset Sepsis Calculator: A Multicenter Survey Study.

Prior studies demonstrated the neonatal early-onset sepsis (EOS) calculator's potential in drastically reducing antibiotic prescriptions, and its international adoption is increasing rapidly. To optimize the EOS calculator's impact, successful implementation is crucial. This study aimed to identify key barriers and facilitators to inform an implementation strategy. A multicenter cross-sectional survey was carried out among physicians, residents, nurses and clinical obstetricians of thirteen Dutch hospitals. Survey development was prepared through a literature search and stakeholder interviews. Data collection and analysis were based on the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR). A total of 465 stakeholders completed the survey. The main barriers concerned the expectance of the department's capacity problems and the issues with maternal information transfer between departments. Facilitators concerned multiple relative advantages of the EOS calculator, including stakeholder education, EOS calculator integration in the electronic health record and existing positive expectations about the safety and effectivity of the calculator. Based on these findings, tailored implementation interventions can be developed, such as identifying early adopters and champions, conducting educational meetings tailored to the target group, creating ready-to-use educational materials, integrating the EOS calculator into electronic health records, creating a culture of collective responsibility among departments and collecting data to evaluate implementation success and innovation results.

Group B Streptococcus Early-Onset Disease: New Preventive and Diagnostic Tools to Decrease the Burden of Antibiotic Use.

The difficulty in recognizing early-onset neonatal sepsis (EONS) in a timely manner due to non-specific symptoms and the limitations of diagnostic tests, combined with the risk of serious consequences if EONS is not treated in a timely manner, has resulted in a low threshold for starting empirical antibiotic treatment. New guideline strategies, such as the neonatal sepsis calculator, have been proven to reduce the antibiotic burden related to EONS, but lack sensitivity for detecting EONS. In this review, the potential of novel, targeted preventive and diagnostic methods for EONS is discussed from three different perspectives: maternal, umbilical cord and newborn perspectives. Promising strategies from the maternal perspective include Group B Streptococcus (GBS) prevention, exploring the virulence factors of GBS, maternal immunization and antepartum biomarkers. The diagnostic methods obtained from the umbilical cord are preliminary but promising. Finally, promising fields from the newborn perspective include biomarkers, new microbiological techniques and clinical prediction and monitoring strategies. Consensus on the definition of EONS and the standardization of research on novel diagnostic biomarkers are crucial for future implementation and to reduce current antibiotic overexposure in newborns.

Evaluating safety and effectiveness of the early-onset sepsis calculator to reduce antibiotic exposure in Dutch at-risk newborns: a protocol for a cluster randomised controlled trial.

INTRODUCTION: Newborns are at risk for early-onset sepsis (EOS). In the Netherlands, EOS affects less than 0.2% of newborns, but approximately 5% are treated with empirical antibiotics. These numbers form an example of overtreatment in countries using risk-factor based guidelines for administrating antibiotics. An alternative to these guidelines is the EOS calculator, a tool that calculates an individual EOS risk and provides management recommendation. However, validation outside the North-American setting is limited, especially for safety outcomes. We aim to investigate whether EOS calculator use can safely reduce antibiotic exposure in newborns with suspected EOS compared with the Dutch guideline. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This protocol describes a cluster randomised controlled trial assessing whether EOS calculator use is non-inferior regarding safety, and superior regarding limiting overtreatment, compared with the Dutch guideline. We will include newborns born at ≥34 weeks' gestation, with at least one risk factor consistent with EOS within 24 hours after birth. After 1:1 randomisation, the 10 participating Dutch hospitals will use either the Dutch guideline or the EOS calculator as standard of care for all newborns at risk for EOS. In total, 1830 newborns will be recruited. The coprimary non-inferiority outcome will be the presence of at least one of four predefined safety criteria. The coprimary superiority outcome will be the proportion of participants starting antibiotic therapy for suspected and, or proven EOS within 24 hours after birth. Secondary outcomes will be the total duration of antibiotic therapy, the percentage of antibiotic therapy started between 24 and 72 hours after birth, and parent-reported quality of life. Analyses will be performed both as intention to treat and per protocol. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This trial has been approved by the Medical Ethics Committee of the Amsterdam UMC (NL78203.018.21). Results will be presented in peer-reviewed journals and at international conferences. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT05274776.

Fatal Early-onset Sepsis Caused by Intrauterine Transmission of Serogroup Y Meningococcus.

Infections by meningococcal species are extremely rare in the first days of life. We present a fatal case of early-onset sepsis presenting at birth, caused by intrauterine transmission of serogroup Y N. meningitidis, evidenced clinically and histologically by corresponding chorioamnionitis and N. meningitidis-positive amniotic fluid. This case confirms a long-standing suspicion that N. meningitidis can be transmitted in utero.

Incidence of Early and Late Onset Neonatal Sepsis in Suriname: A National Tertiary Hospital Birth-cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Early onset neonatal sepsis (EONS) and late onset neonatal sepsis (LONS) are important causes of neonatal mortality and morbidity. A pressing need for reliable and detailed data of low- and middle-income countries exists. This study aimed to describe the incidence and outcome of neonatal sepsis in the only tertiary hospital of Suriname, a middle-income country in South America. METHODS: Infants born at the Academic Hospital of Paramaribo from May 2017 through December 2018 were prospectively included at birth. Perinatal data, duration of antibiotic treatment, blood culture results and mortality data were gathered. Neonatal sepsis was defined as positive blood culture with a pathogenic microorganism within the first 28 days of life. RESULTS: Of the 2190 infants included, 483 (22%) were admitted to neonatal (intensive) care. The incidence of EONS was 2.1 (95% CI: 0.9-5) per 1000 live births, with no deaths. Antibiotics for suspected EONS were administrated to 189 (8.6%) infants, of whom 155 (82%) were born prematurely. The incidence of LONS cases was 145 (95% CI: 114-176) per 1000 admissions. Gramnegative bacteria accounted for 70% (48 out of 70) of causative organisms. Seventeen deaths were directly caused by sepsis (35 per 1000 admissions). CONCLUSIONS: Findings from this tertiary center birth cohort study in a middle-income setting indicate EONS incidence and outcomes comparable to high-income settings, whereas LONS is a more prevalent and significant challenge with a predominance of gram-negative bacteria, and high mortality.

Neonatal early-onset infections: Comparing the sensitivity of the neonatal early-onset sepsis calculator to the Dutch and the updated NICE guidelines in an observational cohort of culture-positive cases.

BACKGROUND: The early-onset sepsis calculator (EOSC) reduces unnecessary antibiotic treatment in newborns. However, its performance in identifying cases with early-onset disease (EOD) is unclear. We compared the sensitivity of the EOSC to the current Dutch and National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidelines when applied to a cohort of newborns with culture-positive early-onset sepsis and meningitis. METHODS: Culture-positive Streptococcus agalactiae (GBS) and Escherichia coli (E. coli) sepsis and meningitis patients ≤3 days old with a gestational age ≥34 weeks, identified between 1/1/2018 and 31/1/2021 in a Dutch prospective nationwide cohort study were included. Cases were identified by treating physicians and microbiological surveillance. Primary outcome was the proportion of patients that would have been treated according to the EOSC, the Dutch, and the NICE EOD prevention guidelines. Differences between proportions were analysed using McNemar's test. FINDINGS: We included 81 GBS and 7 E. coli EOD cases. At 4 h after birth, the EOSC would have recommended antibiotic treatment in 32 (36%) patients, compared to 44 (50%) by the Dutch (p<0·01) and 48 (55%) by the NICE guideline (p<0·01). The EOSC would have initially recommended routine care for 52% of patients compared to 31% and 30% for the Dutch and NICE guidelines (p<0·01). At 24 h after birth, the EOSC would have recommended antibiotic treatment in 54 (61%) infants compared to 64 (73%) by the Dutch (p = 0·02) and 63 (72%) by the NICE guidelines (p = 0·06). INTERPRETATION: The sensitivity of the EOSC in identifying cases of EOD is lower compared to both Dutch and NICE guidelines, especially directly after birth. The EOSC relies more on clinical symptoms and results in less overtreatment of healthy newborns at the cost of later antibiotic treatment in initially well-appearing EOD patients. FUNDING: This work was supported by grants received from Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development (ZonMw; NWO-Vidi-Grant (grant number 917·17·308); NWO-Vici-Grant (grant number 918·19·627)), the Academic Medical Centre (AMC Innovative Impulse Grant) and Steun Emma Foundation Grant.

Machine Learning Used to Compare the Diagnostic Accuracy of Risk Factors, Clinical Signs and Biomarkers and to Develop a New Prediction Model for Neonatal Early-onset Sepsis.

BACKGROUND: Current strategies for risk stratification and prediction of neonatal early-onset sepsis (EOS) are inefficient and lack diagnostic performance. The aim of this study was to use machine learning to analyze the diagnostic accuracy of risk factors (RFs), clinical signs and biomarkers and to develop a prediction model for culture-proven EOS. We hypothesized that the contribution to diagnostic accuracy of biomarkers is higher than of RFs or clinical signs. STUDY DESIGN: Secondary analysis of the prospective international multicenter NeoPInS study. Neonates born after completed 34 weeks of gestation with antibiotic therapy due to suspected EOS within the first 72 hours of life participated. Primary outcome was defined as predictive performance for culture-proven EOS with variables known at the start of antibiotic therapy. Machine learning was used in form of a random forest classifier. RESULTS: One thousand six hundred eighty-five neonates treated for suspected infection were analyzed. Biomarkers were superior to clinical signs and RFs for prediction of culture-proven EOS. C-reactive protein and white blood cells were most important for the prediction of the culture result. Our full model achieved an area-under-the-receiver-operating-characteristic-curve of 83.41% (±8.8%) and an area-under-the-precision-recall-curve of 28.42% (±11.5%). The predictive performance of the model with RFs alone was comparable with random. CONCLUSIONS: Biomarkers have to be considered in algorithms for the management of neonates suspected of EOS. A 2-step approach with a screening tool for all neonates in combination with our model in the preselected population with an increased risk for EOS may have the potential to reduce the start of unnecessary antibiotics.

Long-Term Respiratory Consequences of Early-Life Respiratory Viral Infections: A Pragmatic Approach to Fundamental Questions.

Early-life viral infection can have profound effects on the developing lung and immune systems, both important in asthma development. For decades, research has aimed to establish whether there is a causal link between these viral infections as an exposure and asthma later in childhood. Establishing causality will remain important, but new insights regarding early-life viral infection as an exposure, the recognition of asthma as a heterogeneous outcome, and the shared genetic susceptibility to both suggest a refocus from answering the theoretical question of causality toward additional pragmatic approaches focusing on improving patient outcomes across the spectrum of respiratory disease. This Clinical Commentary reviews the evidence on the consequences of early-life viral infection and aims to look beyond the question of causality, suggesting a research agenda specifically aimed at what matters for human development, and for the quality of life of current and future patients with wheezing disorders.

Requirement of respiratory support in acute bronchiolitis in infants is linked to endothelial and neutrophil activation.

BACKGROUND: Evidence shows that activation of pulmonary vascular endothelium and neutrophils are involved in the pathophysiology of acute bronchiolitis. We hypothesized that levels of markers of endothelial activation and leukocyte counts are associated with requirement and duration of respiratory support. METHODS: Thirty-four infants with bronchiolitis and eight controls were included. Nasopharyngeal swabs and blood samples were taken at admission. Serum levels of Angiopoietin (Ang)-1, Ang-2, sP-selectin, sE-selectin, vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 (sVCAM-1), intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (sICAM-1), and leukocyte counts were measured. For univariate analysis, bronchiolitis cases were grouped into two groups, namely those not requiring and those requiring any form of respiratory support. To control for known risk factors for poor outcome (i.e., age, prematurity, and congenital heart disease), and for days post symptom onset, linear regression analysis was performed with duration of any type of respiratory support in days. RESULTS: Ang-2 levels, Ang-2/Ang-1 ratios, sE-selectin levels, immature neutrophil count, and neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR) were higher in acute bronchiolitis versus controls. Ang-2, and NLR levels were significantly higher, and lymphocyte counts significantly lower, in infants that required respiratory support versus those that did not. Ang-2 levels (ß: .32, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.19-1.19) and NLR (ß: .68, 95% CI: 0.17-1.19) were positive predictors for the duration of respiratory support. CONCLUSIONS: Markers of endothelial and neutrophil activation are associated with respiratory support for acute bronchiolitis. Admission Ang-2 levels and NLR may be promising markers to determine requirement of respiratory support and deserve further study.

Stratified Management for Bacterial Infections in Late Preterm and Term Neonates: Current Strategies and Future Opportunities Toward Precision Medicine.

Bacterial infections remain a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the neonatal period. Therefore, many neonates, including late preterm and term neonates, are exposed to antibiotics in the first weeks of life. Data on the importance of inter-individual differences and disease signatures are accumulating. Differences that may potentially influence treatment requirement and success rate. However, currently, many neonates are treated following a "one size fits all" approach, based on general protocols and standard antibiotic treatment regimens. Precision medicine has emerged in the last years and is perceived as a new, holistic, way of stratifying patients based on large-scale data including patient characteristics and disease specific features. Specific to sepsis, differences in disease susceptibility, disease severity, immune response and pharmacokinetics and -dynamics can be used for the development of treatment algorithms helping clinicians decide when and how to treat a specific patient or a specific subpopulation. In this review, we highlight the current and future developments that could allow transition to a more precise manner of antibiotic treatment in late preterm and term neonates, and propose a research agenda toward precision medicine for neonatal bacterial infections.

Stratification of Culture-Proven Early-Onset Sepsis Cases by the Neonatal Early-Onset Sepsis Calculator: An Individual Patient Data Meta-Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To provide a comprehensive assessment of case stratification by the Neonatal Early-Onset Sepsis (EOS) Calculator, a novel tool for reducing unnecessary antibiotic treatment. STUDY DESIGN: A systematic review with individual patient data meta-analysis was conducted, extending PROSPERO record CRD42018116188. Cochrane, PubMed/MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science, Google Scholar, and major conference proceedings were searched from 2011 through May 1, 2020. Original data studies including culture-proven EOS case(s) with EOS Calculator application, independent from EOS Calculator development, and including representative birth cohorts were included. Relevant (individual patient) data were extracted from full-text and data queries. The main outcomes were the proportions of EOS cases assigned to risk categories by the EOS Calculator at initial assessment and within 12 hours. Evidence quality was assessed using Newcastle-Ottawa scale, Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies, and GRADE tools. RESULTS: Among 543 unique search results, 18 were included, totaling more than 459 000 newborns. Among 234 EOS cases, EOS Calculator application resulted in initial assignments to (strong consideration of) empiric antibiotic administration for 95 (40.6%; 95% CI, 34.2%-47.2%), more frequent vital signs for 36 (15.4%; 95% CI, 11.0%-20.7%), and routine care for 103 (44.0%; 95% CI, 37.6%-50.6%). By 12 hours of age, these proportions changed to 143 (61.1%; 95% CI, 54.5%-67.4%), 26 (11.1%; 95% CI, 7.4%-15.9%), and 65 (27.8%; 95% CI, 22.1%-34.0%) of 234 EOS cases, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: EOS Calculator application assigns frequent vital signs or routine care to a substantial proportion of EOS cases. Clinical vigilance remains essential for all newborns.

Multicentre study found that adherence to national antibiotic recommendations for neonatal early-onset sepsis was low.

AIM: Our aim was to evaluate adherence to the Dutch neonatal early-onset sepsis (EOS) guidelines, adapted from UK guidance. We also looked at the effect on antibiotic recommendations and duration. METHOD: This was a multicentre, prospective observational cross-sectional study carried out in seven hospitals in the Netherlands between 1 September 2018 and 1 November 2019. We enrolled 1024 neonates born at 32 weeks of gestation or later if they demonstrated at least one EOS risk factor or clinical signs of infection. RESULTS: The Dutch guidelines recommended antibiotic treatment for 438/1024 (42.8%) of the neonates designated at risk, but only 186/438 (42.5%) received antibiotics. The guidelines advised withholding antibiotics for 586/1024 (57.2%) of neonates and in 570/586 (97.3%) cases the clinicians adhered to this recommendation. Blood cultures were obtained for 182/186 (97.8%) infants who started antibiotics and only four were positive, for group B streptococci. Antibiotic treatment was continued for more than 3 days in 56/178 (31.5%) neonates, despite a negative blood culture. CONCLUSION: Low adherence to the Dutch guidelines meant that the majority of neonates did not receive the antibiotic treatment that was recommended, while some antibiotic use was prolonged despite negative blood cultures. The guidelines need to be revised.

Technical assessment of the neonatal early-onset sepsis risk calculator.

The use of the neonatal early-onset sepsis risk calculator, developed by Kaiser Permanente Northern California (CA, USA), is increasing for the management of late preterm and full term newborn babies at risk for early-onset sepsis. The calculator is based on a robust logistic regression model that provides quantitative individualised estimates of early-onset sepsis risk. Low sensitivity for prediction of sepsis at birth shows that standard perinatal risk factors alone are insufficient for ascertainment of neonatal early-onset sepsis. Performance is improved by the addition of physical examination findings at birth, but the sensitivity of combined findings remains limited. The present implementation of the calculator integrates risk factors and examination findings. A methodological error in adapting the regression for application in the population (rather than the development sample) and several subsequent modifications compromise the accuracy of quantitative predictions of the absolute risk of sepsis, but these factors are not expected to seriously undermine the use of the calculator for risk stratification. The calculator has served as an instrument of change away from previously recommended categorical risk ascertainment strategies, and its implementation reduces the need for diagnostic testing and empirical antibiotic treatment without apparent ill effects. However, the calculator should not be relied on to provide accurate estimates for individuals with regard to absolute risk of early-onset sepsis in newborn babies.

C-Reactive Protein, Procalcitonin, and White Blood Count to Rule Out Neonatal Early-onset Sepsis Within 36 Hours: A Secondary Analysis of the Neonatal Procalcitonin Intervention Study.

BACKGROUND: Neonatal early-onset sepsis (EOS) is one of the main causes of global neonatal mortality and morbidity, and initiation of early antibiotic treatment is key. However, antibiotics may be harmful. METHODS: We performed a secondary analysis of results from the Neonatal Procalcitonin Intervention Study, a prospective, multicenter, randomized, controlled intervention study. The primary outcome was the diagnostic accuracy of serial measurements of C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), and white blood count (WBC) within different time windows to rule out culture-positive EOS (proven sepsis). RESULTS: We analyzed 1678 neonates with 10 899 biomarker measurements (4654 CRP, 2047 PCT, and 4198 WBC) obtained within the first 48 hours after the start of antibiotic therapy due to suspected EOS. The areas under the curve (AUC) comparing no sepsis vs proven sepsis for maximum values of CRP, PCT, and WBC within 36 hours were 0.986, 0.921, and 0.360, respectively. The AUCs for CRP and PCT increased with extended time frames up to 36 hours, but there was no further difference between start to 36 hours vs start to 48 hours. Cutoff values at 16 mg/L for CRP and 2.8 ng/L for PCT provided a sensitivity of 100% for discriminating no sepsis vs proven sepsis. CONCLUSIONS: Normal serial CRP and PCT measurements within 36 hours after the start of empiric antibiotic therapy can exclude the presence of neonatal EOS with a high probability. The negative predictive values of CRP and PCT do not increase after 36 hours.

Epidemiology and Mortality of Early-Onset Neonatal Sepsis in Suriname: A 2-Year Surveillance Study.

We conducted a nationwide surveillance study to produce reliable national estimates on incidence, etiology, and mortality of early-onset neonatal sepsis (EONS) in Suriname. The estimated national population incidence rate of EONS was 1.37 (95% CI: 0.90-1.99) per 1000 live births and in-hospital mortality was 25.9%.